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02 Oct 2016

You truly must be a Contrarian to Earn at Horse Racing!


Betting is a hell of more fun whenever you win. People generally speaking views anyone that wagers on horse racing as a gambler, interpretation a “loser.” With my early Computer Group success, We have never considered myself either a gambler or a loser.

You need to approach rushing aided by the mindset of a stock market analyst. If you consider it virtually any means, your just another compulsive gambler. (Sorry if anybody is offended, but we need to ensure that it it is real) rushing is a new monetary market that is slowly getting as much as the rest of the globe.

Aided by the invention of peer-to-peer exchange wagering, rushing can be assaulted, conquered, and soundly beaten. Advanced algorithms we used in our computer programs still have a decided advantage on the general public. Our company is maybe not dealing with the software you get for £49.95 on the internet, but proprietary databases run by main-frame computers.


To conquer the bookmakers and flog the general public, you ought to “believe out from the field” and do the opposite of what their particular performing. That is only accomplished by contrarian thinking. As opposed to gambling horses to win, such as the remaining portion of the cattle, become a bookmaker and just take a stand against public opinion by laying horses to win. If you’re a newbie to any or all this, I would ike to rapidly describe that in any event, you can often right back a horse therefore your gambling to win. Conversely, I just take a contrarian position against you, therefore i’m Laying your horse to lose.

Whenever backing, without a doubt 10 to win 50. I decide to get on the other side by putting up £50 to win 10. Sound crazy. I will be asking to exposure a lot to only win a little. Try not to leave as of this time we have been only getting started. Consider it, any loser buddies are gambling horses to win 12 months in and 12 months out. Will they be retired and living on a golf program, overseas in haven, like i’m? Or would they rather borrow cash away from you weekly until payday.

Casinos and Bookmakers in Las Vegas welcome all comers to bet anything they desire on race horses. Look on the internet, countless casinos provides you with a bonus, if you vow to lose money using them. Perhaps these casinos and bookmakers take to anything. Bookmakers are successful because they understand the mathematical odds of rushing and sports wagering. We were only available in 1979, and now have spent years to master the accurate mathematics about what constitutes a loser. We cannot figure out a method that is foolproof and mathematically correct. Mathematics geniuses are few and far between.

Let us examine this idea a little bit closer. You are in the career to be David passages Goliath when backing a horse to win. To win, definitely every thing has to get your way. You need to trust the instructor. Features he already been properly put his horse in a race together with his buddies. (their buddies obviously are also horses which he can beat) Next, the Jockey must provide you with a perfect ride. Try not to relocate to soon, don’t get shut off, usually do not get too quickly, is he an apprentice. Ouch, and do not get also slow, or relocate to late, & most essential. Try not to fall off.

The horse must also work for you really to gather. He must feel working these days. Those brand-new blinkers or tongue connections need to work. Think about that deep dirty track or even the synthetic area, has actually he run well on it before? He cannot become spooked by a new track area that is not used to him. You will find a million even more small tidbits that may split up you from your money.

Allow me to take a look at the Lay side for this exact same event. I’ve decided to mistake quietly of the casinos and bookmakers. I will bet your horse will likely not win, I am laying him to lose. Final time I looked, these people were constructing some pretty nice casinos with this particular particular thinking. And the good news is, you will require every thing to go right. I only need a very important factor for you really to go wrong. I also have another huge bonus. I’ve almost every other horse into the race-running for me. Therefore in a race of 15 athletes, i’m cheering for any of 14 of them to win. If you have spent years backing horses and going home a loser, maybe it’s time to switch groups and commence laying horses.


Online is full of innumerable computer programs, systems, publications and guides that supposedly provide you with to be able to retire. A lot of them needs your hard earned money and give you little more than bare guarantees in return. These programs aren’t awful, you will find simply not sophisticated adequate to provide you with the advantage needed to win is competitive, you have to combine state-of-the-art technology with mathematics and careful record keeping.

Can this be accomplished by hand or on your family computer you ask? undoubtedly, but you’ll need Santa’s small helpers working for you to input all data. Also, be sure you are utilising computers with synthetic intelligence. This means, the computer learns daily from results and makes modifications toward system when required. No software package is going to operate in the long term. Rushing is in a continuing state of flux and alter. It really is imperative which you stay before rule alterations, track bias, climate, etc. or you will be consumed up by modification.


Remember with lay gambling, you ought to follow a reverse strategy for assessing horses and rushing problems. You need to evaluate exactly how a horse will do under present track problems. You need to take a look at race form. Will there be much rate into the race these days? Exactly what area of the track when your jockey place the horse?

Many individuals believe they have a method, only to realize that it doesn’t work on a regular basis. Is validated as successful, your system or system must work at all paths, covering various types of racing, whenever of the year.

If for example the systems under performs, you have to resist chasing your losses. This only leads to stupid choices, and that obviously is never great. Remember, scared money “NEVER WINS.” REAL TIME BY NUMBERS AND FORGOT HUMAN FEELING.

Our company is great at that which we do, because all methodology is 100percent technical and subject to peoples feelings. Over 100,000 races moved into the Matrix Profile to find out the thing that makes a loser. This is the vital range here. You MUST just take Emotion out from the handicapping equation, unless of course you might be a HAL 9000 computer. You will only WIN by strictly trusting and following figures.


Before creating a method or methodology you ought to outline your goals. Mine had been simple, but reaching the objective took a few years.

1. Design a way that could work every-where. (All paths, climate, class, synthetic area, turf, forms of race, maiden, stakes, claiming, etc.)

2.Design a way that could work with Betting Robots. The one thing the Bot will have to sort, will be the chances. (Bet just horses at 9.9 or less Betfair) many people aren’t economically in a position to stay home and stay by their particular computer.

3.Maintain consistent results through the entire year, without lengthy dropping lines.


After our database of over 100,000 races was in destination, we’d to decide that which was essential. To achieve success at laying horses, we needed to profile a loser. Exactly what had been the important thing traits which are distributed to most dropping horses? Each event is independent of most other individuals. Initially we must compare all entries while assigning and deducting things for previous results. Not only do we need a profile of a loser, we must also profile which appears ideal chance of winning.

In simply terms, I want to assign each horse a share chance of winning the race

Example Race:     

Horse A = 75.00percent Odds of Winning – 25.00percent Odds of Losing 

Horse B = 66.66percent Odds of Winning – 33.33percent Odds of Losing 

Horse C = 58.33percent Odds of Winning – 41.67percent Odds of Losing 

Horse D = 55.60percent Odds of Winning – 44.40percent Odds of Losing 

Horse E = 38.90percent Odds of Winning – 61.11percent Odds of Losing 

Horse F = 30.60percent Odds of Winning – 69.40percent Odds of Losing  

Horse G = 27.80percent Odds of Winning – 72.22percent Odds of Losing 

Horse H = 11.11percent Odds of Winning – 88.88percent Odds of Losing 

Horse I   =   8.33 % Odds of Winning – 91.67% Odds of Losing 

Look at the natural data above, which of the horses appears the littlest chance of winning the race. Which horses would you like to put? Is the reply to put both Horse “H” and Horse “I”? If so, you can get sit in the corner and place on the dunce limit. That is only a part of the equation. You need to know very well what the Betfair finishing chances will be to make that choice.

Horse Selection “I”, will simply win 8percent of the time. To ensure that indicates if you Lay Selections “I” you certainly will gather 92percent of the time. It nonetheless seems decent, a method in which you will win 92percent of the time. But what will be the Betfair Odds? If that horse goes to upload at 150.0 to at least one, you will be in some trouble. Initially you may never be laying horses at 150 to at least one if you don’t are interested into the Royal Family treasury. To win 100, you will need to be sure you have 15,000 within trading account to pay for the times as he does win.

Carrying-on aided by the example, if you only lost when every hundred races, as opposed to the projected eight times (8percent), you’ll remain unfavorable 5,800.

You need to seek out a suitable win portion, and determine the greatest amount you intend to exposure. Remember, the general public is almost always the signal of who can win, so that the lower chances, the greater amount of opportunity a horse has actually of winning. That is why many people will never put a horse below a few to a single.

I will be comfortable laying horses at 9.9 Betfair or less. Which means, my selections can be laid, at 9 to at least one or less. (If you are not really acquainted with Betfair chances, they add an extra 1.0 to each chances quoted, which represents the amount of your bet)

My natural strike price is all about 83percent, plus or minus 2% percent. Listed here is a straightforward example. If we put 100 races, we shall win 8,300 with my consistent 83percent strike price. Studying the last 20,000 selections, my average dropping lay price on Betfair had been 5.31. I expect you’ll drop 17percent of the time. Calculating my losses on 100 races, I can expect you’ll drop 7,327. (That Is 4.31 Chances X 17 Losers = 7,327). So the revenue over 100 selections is 973 or 9.73% percent.

The secret is to change you bankroll over as numerous times possible every month. Utilizing my natural selections, I average 650 to 700 natural data plays monthly. Which means you can turn your bank over six to seven times every thirty days and change that 973 into more. Those figures aren’t bad considering the Bank of England is only offering 1.7percent per year, whenever you deduct for 3percent inflation.


Next secret is to increase share reasonable strange selections. When I have said before, as the marketplace is contains a share of viewpoints, the lower chances, the greater opportunity a horse has actually of winning. Our selections going down at 3 to at least one or less, (4.0 Betfair) we nonetheless show a strike price of 77percent. Less great as our regular 84percent, you are risking a significantly smaller part of your money on each bet. Dual staking short listed selections increases your main point here. If you shed 100 on a selection that is 6.0, your reduction will be 500. When you shed 200 on a selection that is 3.5 your reduction can be 500. But we’ve huge bonus right here. When you win at 3.5 Betfair, and you will win 77percent of the time, you gather two times your regular share or 200.

It is not an over night “get rich system.” It really is a great, stair-step progression, in which your money expands at a rather constant pace. Make every bet unit equivalent amount, apart from the two fold share unit with post time odds of 4.0 Betfair or less. Start tiny, and stay comfortable with your staking unit.

You should have 40 to 80 devices within money before starting. If you wish to win 10 per race, you will need to set-aside 400 to 800. If you start within 100 amount, conversely you will require 4,000 to 8,000. Try not to raise your devices, and soon you have won at the very least half the amount of your starting money. Whenever a raise in stakes is suitable you really need to only raise your wagers by 10percent to 20percent. Go slowly and do not become a hog. Remember, “Pigs get Fat, but Hogs get slaughtered”.

You might be in a position to enhance on my natural Ratings while increasing the strike price with a method of your very own. By either enhancing the strike price thus eliminating losers, you certainly will fatten your main point here.


I literally have a large number of small filters in my own database, that I can affect hopeful improve my natural figures. A filter example is: “Eliminate any runner who’s got won a lot more than 90percent of his races.” Or, “get rid of all athletes which finished second within their last race”. You will find literally a large number of Filters you can dream as much as improve the natural Ratings.

Some are entirely useless, while others can seriously improve your results. Before applying filters, you have to have sufficient data, to prove your summary. I have found by applying 5 filters, I can increase my strike price about 3percent to 4percent. This might maybe not sound like much, but it makes a massive distinction. At the conclusion of the average thirty days, i’ll win very nearly the exact same amount in dollars or pounds, as with the natural figures. But i’ll only have about one-third as numerous selections; nonetheless my Return on Investment will triple,

Normal Monthly return with a 100 Stake utilizing natural Numbers             

Strike Rate 83.9percent – Options 524 – Normal Revenue 7,633 -13.7percent Return

Normal Monthly return with a £100 Stake utilizing Filtered natural Numbers 

Strike Rate 87.9percent – Options 160 – Normal Revenue 6,400 – 38.2percent Return

As you care able to see, by improving your strike price some things, and eliminating unnecessary selections, you might in fact triple your minimal share. Again, you should be very careful whenever you filter wide base winning natural figures. Having a strike price of 83.9percent over 1,000 races is a lot more impressive than a strike price of 87.9percent over 100 races.

I’ve dropped into the over filtering pitfall myself. At once, I happened to be applying over 30 various filters. Temporary success had been fantastic, although figures will catch up with you if for example the maybe not careful. Take your time, do your research, and trust the figures.